REINZ Housing data – April 2023: Housing downturn set to be less severe than expected

• REINZ housing data appears to show the NZ housing market on the turn, with prices stemming their descent and activity metrics showing very gradual signs of warming
• Broader housing market drivers are also looking more supportive for prices, with net migration running very strong, supply indicators stabilising and mortgage rates increasingly close to peaking
• We may be getting close to a turning point, and we now expect prices to decline about 17% from their late 2021 peak by the latter part of this year.

NZ house prices were essentially flat in April according REINZ House Price Index (seasonally adjusted by ASB). This is the first time in about eighteen months or so that house prices haven’t fallen according to the REINZ index. Viewed in conjunction with March’s modest 0.1% fall, it looks increasingly like the pace of cooling in the housing market is easing and perhaps even plateauing.

Report prepared by Nathaniel Keall, Economist, ASB

Source: ASB Economic Note